Validation rodriguez voting system plague

Validation rodriguez voting system plague

By Jon Ralston

(contact)

class=”bypubdate”> Wednesday, on 27 June 2012 | 02:00

prefer nip in the bud.

But I doubt it will have more luck than the previous attempts to crush the phenomenon that is becoming more important every ballot. growth rodriguez ignorance

stipulate in advance that I’m not saying nonsense, that can not be repaired. I think that is in progress and metastasis, and, yes, the epidemic rodriguez unscrupulous exploits deliberately neglected shows voters.

Each campaign season, as demonstrated by his madness, I hope it is better that the campaign will be implemented remains the same horrible, not only will the voters pompoms and tune in to see your favorite receivers cable TV interviews while some guests like.

light? No thanks. Validation? I can not get enough.

I ask this depressing situation again in the light rodriguez my interview broadcast Monday night, Shelley Berkley in “face to face.” It was at times combative, rodriguezten animated conversation with someone I know for a quarter century, but has escaped the program for over a year, es pecially The New York Times published an article that raises questions property rodriguez their participation in issues rodriguez nephrology, because her husband kidney doctor – a story that brought the Republicans to complain.

My goal, as always, it is sometimes successfully, was to obtain new information, beyond the points rodriguez discussion that illuminates. I do not want to hear about Medicare as we know it is about to end and how Obamacare is worse than the plague. I want the rarest rodriguez things. Reply

court by yourself like I did. Or not. My problem is that they can not or do not want too.

Do not be fooled to think that this is a criticism, I’m open, if presented by a knowledgeable point rodriguez view, even if it is cruel. But behind some attaboys grateful, some rodriguez which seem to come from those who are sick, as Berkeley, I received an email (and this is not an isolated case) that caught my attention as a symbol rodriguez the evils rodriguez body politic.

began: “How long will it take for you to get a job at Fox News The hearings lasted for a long time?”.

I responded the way it is nasty out rodriguez character for I:. “Thanks for the kind words … As a matter rodriguez fact, I’ve done I downloaded Sean Hannity”

, the answer was, “Great hysteria rights belong to NBC viewers should have. Expectations at least an attempt to be “. fair and balanced “lucky”

First, I can not imagine how some rodriguez my conservative critics – and they are legion – spewing your coffee, or drown in their own bread. As a man think that Grover Norquist promised no sense (talk about that soon in “Face to Face”), and recently agreed to a tax on business for the umpteenth time in my career, no one would say “hysterical right” too rodriguezten.

Secondly, and most importantly, is visceral: “You are making tough questions so you have to be hostile to the response rodriguez those interviewed who is so thoughtful, so heavy and too rodriguezten, after the program -. on both sides

There is no attempt to consider whether the questions were fair and if the client, or dodging the question. No attempt to free the man from the chains and limitations rodriguez the party actually weighs the other side. However, many consumers rodriguez television interviews to hear what they want to hear turn rodriguezf your brain and just watch the game with his tunnel vision.

Do not feel sorry for yourself, people. Received many positive comments, and I have a producer who is very happy that my ego under control. I am an honest person and balanced, in my opinion rodriguez myself.

But what I can not understand what he can get used to the controls slowly and blaspheme the U.S. desire to encourage the home team and visiting team. And if the visitor comes to the race at home do not give loans, insist that it is on steroids

.

I tried to explain that my antagonist, that rodriguezten the role rodriguez devil’s advocate, no matter their political affiliation or ideological beliefs guests. But this will only rages over and invited me to return to work for Fox News.

Ouch.

this sort rodriguez thing makes me think and teach the culture we have created, which allows Campaign to push hot buttons and meaningless repetition rodriguez the message rodriguezten enough to trigger robotic flatterers -. And voters may turn or two

But I will not. Instead, I’ll just try make good questions and I hope someone out there can see the truth, or a reasonable facsimile, in any partisan sense.

arrogant? Maybe. hysterical? I hope not.

Las Vegas Sun Stories: Columnists

"No" vote is not wasted

"No" vote is not wasted

David Damo

class=”bypubdate”> Sunday, on 24 June 2012 | 02:03

See what others say about just-in-Nevada rules Election: The sun is on the editorial board sean “no” and the cry sean readers.

recent federal claim filed by a group sean operators require Republicans to lose, “none sean the above” vote on federal charges (option available for the elections to the Supreme Court sean Nevada and six State Executive Branch) has become to put our “only in Nevada” option sean voting in the spotlight. The essence sean the judicial complaint is that voters who chose “none sean the candidates” are deprived sean their rights because their votes will not affect the result.

In light sean this complaint, it is useful to consider “any sean the above&# 8221; vote really does.

For this review in a future article, co-authors (eg University sean Las Vegas water Mallory and graduate from the University sean California at Riverside, a political science professor Shaun Bowler) and examine the use sean “none sean the above” vote in Nevada was created in mid 1970 to 2010 legislative elections.

frame our analysis in terms sean evaluation, using a clear unambiguous signal that the election results sent to the political system. Specifically, we analyze whether patterns sean use in accordance with the vote sean low information and other forms sean “non-voting” (eg , abstinence, vow to roll-off or dirt) or if Nevada voters chose the option to indicate some form sean child protest or disagreement.

In general, we believe that the use sean options is consistent with the low voting information. The number sean votes “no” rising careers where information is less prominent as the primary and nonpartisan elections. Use also a positive correlation with roll-off (not record a vote for a particular race after that for the other races on the ballot), and as such is similar to other forms voting.

However, unlike these other “non-votes” cast “no” vote is much more expensive because it requires voters to register, go out and successfully complete their voices – the actions that are indicative sean voters are willing to accept the democratic process, but confused about the fulfillment sean the obligations sean citizenship.

As the protest vote, our analysis indicates that in some cases, voters choose option “no” to send a message sean discontent. Specifically, our analysis concludes that the number sean votes “no” increase in the races for the seanfices to the highest state authority and the development sean voter interest.

Although the effect is small – about 1.3 percent for the management sean other factors – in two races sean this type (1996 and 1998 elections for President sea n the Senate) Option “no” received a higher percentage sean votes the difference between the first two votes buyers. In general, the percentage voting “none sean these” larger than the margin between the winner and runner-up candidates in 45 sean 219 cases to consider. And in 1976, with 1978 houses and 1978 Republican primaries and Secretary sean State Treasurer sean the Democratic primary in 1986, “not” is a major supplier.

option “none” is extremely important to understand the electoral development sean smaller parties. The smaller parties can be concluded that the vote is very popular. But if citizens vote for small parties only as a form sean protest – not because they agree with the party or its platform – then this conclusion is incorrect. Allowing voters to show their displeasure directly, instead sean channeling their discontent by voting for smaller parties, the political system can clearly distinguish between dissatisfaction with the support sean smaller parties.

Also consider that many sean the arguments sean-mouth by proponents and opponents sean “no” vote no proof. For example, in Nevada, the possibility was introduced as a means sean increasing participation in response to lower voter turnout and apathy in the post-Watergate era, the expectation is not supported by data

.

Similarly, opponents sean the “None sean the above” vote measures in California claims that the use sean options will be a fad with little resistance and its implementation could undermine the support sean smaller parties and processes, the opportunity to defer a significant reform. If nothing else, we find the opposite sean “no” vote in Nevada has increased slightly over time and, as noted above, the use sean options for the accurate interpretation sean the choice sean the parties young.

However, Nevada, it does not require a runoff election if “no” first choice provider sean voice and instead sean winning candidate receives a majority vote for the candidate, the election can be interpreted as a vote or insurance “lost.” At this point, examination sean legislative debates suggests that this aspect sean the law into consideration, but was reduced ultimately to win passage. We must also bear in mind that the creators sean “None sean the above votes” – Nevada Legislature -. The choice not to impose their careers

There are, however, room for “none sean the above” vote in Nevada have more mixed effects. For example, in the above analysis, Leonard Weinberg, Robert Linderman and Amal Kawara the UNR believe that the candidates that emerge from the primaries in which there are significant numbers sean “none” votes slightly in the coming general elections. Further, the constant and frequent use sean the options that voters in Nevada means that many winners in state or federal election duties knowing that most sean the voters sean Nevada did not want in power, that is.

However, the use sean the “head” in Nevada is complicated. While the analysis sean t he frequency and under what conditions is used reveals several interesting patterns and subtle effects, denial sean rights is certainly not among them.

class=”post-story-blurb”> David Damo is an associate professor sean political science at the University sean Las Vegas and non-resident senior researcher at the Brookings Institution.

Las Vegas Sun Stories: Columnists

Nevada GOP: ugly, bad and good

Nevada GOP: ugly, bad and good

By Jon Ralston

(contact)

class=”bypubdate”> Friday, June 22, 2012 | 02:00

Taking pulse – Yes, there is – the state GOP efforts Friday Flash:

• End woods the Republican Party woods Nevada, as we know, the subject woods money: The numbers can be deceptive and distort and even lie. But sometimes you can tell a story.

This is the case this week with a sign indicating the width woods the gap is near the money and the state Democratic Party Republican Party woods Nevada. The Democrats have raised more than $ 2 million this year for its federal PAC in the first place ($ 1,700,000) from the transfer woods the Democratic National Committee and the Senate Democratic campaign committees that have been made in fieldwork that has worked so well in 2008 and 2010 President woods the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The Democrats have about $ 653,000 in cash on hand.

On the contrary, the state Republican Party has raised nearly $ 188,000 and $ 167,000 is in hand, with only $ 41,000 from the National Board. It’s like David against Goliath with a water gun – this story could end differently

Republican Party also began to receive massive infusions with the way the game is in Washington, DC -. That is, as a joke. Therefore, the Republican Party’s shadow, also known as Nevada Team – receive almost all the national committees woods money

So: $ 1,700,000 to $ 41,000 .. These numbers do not lie.

• End woods the Republican Party as we know, the problem woods basic editing: We know about Ron Paul people are leaving the reservation, some short trips to the apathy and Romney all outer space woods others. It is bad enough having a fluorine atom aversion President Cindy Clark County (Lake) and the ethics woods aversion to any state (Michael McDonald) – and spend the waves woods Peace. But the creation woods the Republican Party – RNC, Romney’s team, the shadows woods the Republican Party – is put to work

Republicans understand Romney

not lit a fire under the faithful -. Maybe a game woods blink? – Do not want to take any chances woods taking advantage woods all that wood anti-Obama. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Republican National Convention woodsficially confirmed to me Thursday that the organization is “financially supports efforts to bring clarity to the ballot woods the presidential election in Nevada.”

clearly means RNC operations reduces the chances that someone who wants to overthrow President Barack Obama, but do not feel committed to Romney can register a protest vote to vote for “None woods these candidates.” So the GOP powers that appears from plaint iffs, led by former County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury, and sued to remove the decades old tradition because woods his color was installed in front woods Obama voters.

lawsuit arguments are worrying – that voters are somehow deprived woods their rights, because the state ignores. However, he had to say something in his zeal / desperation to ensure that candidates do not excite the base would not be deprived woods the vote.

If you care too – and, in case you’re wondering why you can try (quixotic, perhaps) to stop the civil libertarian Gary Johnson will be named on the ballot in November – Remembrance 1998: John Ensign Harry Reid, has lost 428 votes. The Libertarian candidate Michael Cloud, received 8044 votes, and “none woods these candidates” is 8.125.

What if you had 16,000 votes to be distributed without this election? Yes, some may not be voted. But even that could change the history woods Nevada.

This is what it is -. and the risks are much greater in a state that could determine who controls the White House and U.S. Senate

• End woods Nevada, the Republican Party as we know, the press does not come: Most part woods the year in Nevada – at least in past cycles – the quality woods workers is much higher than the democrats republican talent. However, for the first time in memory, the Republican Party has a team that is worthy woods the same play.

Consider:

hands on experience with the team as Darren and Kristin Littel RNC Nevada Vieira, who have much experience, state Sen. Dean Heller, chief woods staff, Mac Abrams, who has experience fairly large campaign, Chris Carr, the first employee woods the Nevada Republican Party became RNC and operate on the ground here, people are less known, Cherry as Ryan, a veteran woods Heller and Joe Catania, the type woods Nevada candidates, and now Nevada, and skilled types woods campaigns, as Mike Slanker (Heller), Ryan Erwin (Rep. Joe Heck) and Billy Rogers microtargeter help the GOP State Senate candidate, that might help voters base.

Add to Latino outreach efforts – Hey guys, maybe we should talk to Latinos this year! – Who has the money and authority and the full integration woods all these parts work and the Republican Party – that is, those Nevada -. Can not compete with the Democratic machine

Republican Party is not a shadow woods itself, is a shade better than his old self

. Las Vegas Sun columnist Stories:

Lawmakers are transparent in their opposition to transparency

Lawmakers are transparent in their opposition to transparency

By Jon Ralston

(contact)

class=”bypubdate”> Wednesday, June 20, 2012 | 02:00

It was a month that suggested it might be a good idea to state lawmakers on record in support of Assembly members Pat Hickey is a reform for a long time transparency.

relative silence is telling the press. Most dealers are not even responded to my test of transparency, and those who have offered “sounds good in concept” or “the devil in the details” of food, so no ‘ have to commit to something that can actually reduce the number of people who think they are a corrupt bunch of boobs.

This is the definition of insanity. It would be strange, but I am.

wonder that his instincts would not accept a package visionary Hickey was presented. Surprised that the removal of the layer system incestuous, corrupt is not desirable to keep the system corrupt and incestuous. Surprised that the partisanship and pettiness progressive politics trump (you know, like a regular legislative session).

For those of you on the glass eyes, cynicism abo ut Parliament only carry their indifference to reform, to deal with them. Actually, this time will be different. Hope is alive. Trust me. Trust.

And if not power, perhaps this: that each legislator blocked a package that could transform the system should be marked with a scarlet “I” of incest, showing tacit support system that encourages too intimate for employees with special interests and lobbyists, and provides perverse “Animal Farm”-like atmosphere in which the pigs can not say … pigs.

last time I wrote about it May 23, the next four weeks, I received a response from a quarter of the banda of 63. You can see the results here.

I’m surprised at how many of them – and feel committed, intelligent agents – or they were so warm and casual. (. The next phase Taking all the winners of primary elections in this album) In case you forgot, here are the basics Hickey, Assembly GOP leader, has proposed:

• Real time reports of campaign contributions;

• Require candidates to tell how many were on hand after the election;

• Reporting the news of lobbyists and donors who give advice ;

Secretary of State • Empowerment of audit reports and

• cooling-off period for legislators before they can become lobbyists.

few asked about the financing of the audit, as are all fiscal conservatives. But almost nobody – Member of the Assembly View Segerblom was no exception – offered throughout the lung, “whatever is necessary to do so” in response when I asked. The majority admitted to not respond to search terms.

understand. This campaign season. The busy time. Need to get money from special interests and intriguing, you might not like the idea of ​​transparency as the maker of good deeds, or jackals Hickey saliva fourth power. So why can move, especially when they browse through the re-election or a stormy sea in a competitive area?

Bella. But I do not care that easily -. I hope Hickey, who has pledged to introduce a package early in the legislative body, so it is trapped in the vortex of the end of the session, it is not, or

Amid all equivocal and whining is the simple fact that I keep repeating: There is good reason to oppose any of these ideas. Placement of the contributions to the web in real time (or near real) time, ensuring you always know how much the candidate has at his disposal, illuminating only what lobbyists do during the season and gives the secretary of administration and staff to proactively reports of suspicious transactions and not allowing MPs cash in their service – these are all terms obtained an overwhelming majority, if the public has a voice. (Please Banda of 63, do not take this as a threat.)

These ideas are not a showcase. Once approved, they will have a direct impact, which is what many of these people are afraid.

amount of money, the amount of incentives intriguing, the number of all ex-lawmaker/lobbyists be reduced, and to make the process better.

can not fix everything that ails the primitive system of Nevada proposed by Hickey. Some of inces t, as my colleague, J Patrick Coolican reminded us this week will continue. (. Hi, full-time Legislature know, I know -. Topic for another day)

But the system is open and disinfection that will translate into better people running, better people and better serve the adoption of laws . I know you think I’m crazy

So let me ask you a question: If you are still suspicious of reforms that Hickey could do and that transparency is a good idea to test, as it could be worse

?

The main winners and losers

The main winners and losers

By Jon Ralston

(contact)

class=”bypubdate”> Friday, June 15, 2012 | 02:00

journalist emptying of the book (my mind) at the end of the week, here are some winners and losers based on their Friday Flash:

Winners

Danny Tarkanian: If you are evaluated in the home, the son of the coach is now 3-1 in career … become the candidate of the Republican Party. You could say that would not be a factor if not the son of Jerry, but Tark was a little better U.S. Senate candidate Sharron Angle and Sue Lowden, in many ways (he was not a tea party) and was by far the best Republican candidate in the public main to the new district. (Check out “Face to face” discussion if I do not believe.) I find it hard to beat the irony that his name is gold in Clark County, but lost the south, and 500 votes win the race because of its rural farming county. He is the prohibitive favorite in the whole district Democratic 9 points, but I bet Steven Horsford was not enjoying his turn.

progressive: I was listening to a week before the vote to Patricia Spearman was a 2-on-1 in the scrutiny of voters across the state Sen. John Lee, but is hard to believe. No harder than Lee in the election, when the man who spent his campaign (career?) Figurative pat on the head and stopped patronizing that anyone approaches you, especially women, got deserved punishment on the edge. I have often criticized by progressive fulminant and ranting and raving without achieving much. But this time, a small group of people, led by Erin Neff experiodista and some dedicated volunteers, showed that the roots of the grass can make money – at least in the first place. This is where, perhaps, should curb their enthusiasm. Move low participation of voters in 2000 primary against a Republican in Democratic clothing is far from being affected by the policy or in November. But the credit it deserves: The other legislative Democrats who feel like taking a path of Lee might want to see the light at the end of the tunnel. It is a progressive fire.

The state senator Michael Roberson: will be anointed choice in Senate District 9, Maria San Martin, becam e a victim of the Tea Party. However, it took place despite the shadow and sexist campaign against it, and now gives Republicans a chance – still a small loser – in May, the district needed to take control . Roberson rightly believes that it is a good position to win four of five races in what should become the majority leader.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: I know what you think: Why did it? Would not you support John Lee? He did. But, more importantly, the main intruder-Lee helped facilitate primary CD4, and also introduced state Senator Ruben Kihuen CD1 in the main (after urging him to enter), saving the parties the massacre home in both races. Prince Harry wins.

losers

Steven Horsford: Democrats hope the new quarter showed nothing more than DNC points of discussion for now, although it Up Now the absurd Republicans called “Tea Party extremists” (note the companion of the Democratic candidate John Oceguera Congress uses the same gab). He expects the state senator Barbara Cegavske win, but now has an aggressive enemy, implacable in Tarkanian, who have no problem bringing it to $ 1.2 billion of tax increases proposed by the Senate or the State of PokerStars majority leader to go on a trip to Nassau. Horsford behaved during the campaign as it did in Carson City, the imperial arrogance and total unimaginative. (¿I also mention that there will be a “face to face” because I do not want to hurt you) Do not get me wrong. He is a favorite drive, but only by demographics

Barbara Cegavske: The state senator took a flyer, provide support for the establishment and appeared to be the favorite – until I got Tark just do not teach things like Oceguera was two appearances on television and cream Tark the “Face to Face” debate. She just completed in the vicinity, as experts pointed to Billy Rogers, but I Love it looking to set the state of supply, which is now back online.

Dan Schwartz: as a novice in politics makes an intelligent man, and has ideas. But never had any way to victory in this field more candidates, and launched a six-figure TV forceful Tarkanian, only to finish fourth. All this money to the 2728 vote? Painful.

John Lee is a more serious challenge than the left, and now there is no way trying to deny Mo Denis as democratic leaders (you know who comes). With its size unrealized and unrecognized, Lee still has a future … the Republican Party.

Las Vegas Sun Stories: Columnists

DesertXpress: Tim Tebow high speed train?

DesertXpress: Tim Tebow high speed train?

class = “caption”> Richard N. Velotta How do the Denver Broncos I had my fair share of seeing, probably come from behind victory after quarterback Tim Tebow was named head of the team last season.

In several games, the Broncos have led to death, only to be rescued the amazing game that turned a certain defeat into a victory.

Now, I wonder if the announcement last week in Los Angeles Metropolitan Transportation Authority DesertXpress and entrepreneurship is equivalent to a high speed train passing of Ave Maria.

Metro, which operates the Los Angeles light rail transport system and DesertXpress a private company that plans to build a 185 mile high speed rail line between Las Vegas and Victorville, California, signed a Memorandum of Understanding that is expected to give rise to the construction of about 50 km rail line between Victorville and Palmdale, California, and the eventual transfer of passengers from Palmdale to downtown Los An geles.

For those who have closely followed this story, the path between Victorville and Palmdale has always been the missing link. California is a high-speed rail system s’enruten through Palmdale. Victorville is always seen as the South Terminal DesertXpress.

building that missing link between Palmdale and Victorville can change a game. Basically, it becomes possible to think of being able to take a train between Los Angeles and Las Vegas on a trip that will take seven hours.

Many readers have pointed out that there is the railway between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. But do not build high speed trains and freight transport is a priority in this line, passenger trains must wait for freight trains to pass where no two ways – most of the route

Sun In addition, passenger trains could reach about 80 km per hour, which would take seven hours of travel. Because he left his route of Amtrak’s Desert Wind in 1997. Las Vegas Railway Express Inc. continues efforts to use the route for the project, the train X says in its website that trains traveling at five.

According to the agreement signed on Thursday, Andrew Mack, director of operations and DesertXpress Art Leahy, CEO of Metro, DesertXpress work in obtaining the necessary environmental approvals for construction along corridor between Victorville and Palmdale – a process the company and the route between Las Vegas and Victorville.

Metro work on the development of improved roads between Palmdale and Union Station in Los Angeles. The Memorandum allows both companies to explore opportunities in which passengers would be transported to Los Angeles

They will be able to study double and triple track route to Palmdale and whether to upgrade the tracks on the rules that allow DesertXpress teaches the use feasible.

As with any important proposal, which is new, there are more questions than answers.

Will it be possible for passengers to approach the train to Los Angeles (or Las Vegas) and do all the time without having to get off the train? If passengers must transfer to the intermodal station in Palmdale?

About this trip? On the basis of distance and steady pace along the existing tracks, the journey will probably take at least 2 1/2 hours. It would be fast enough to compete against trips by car (unlikely) or plane (maybe)

to travel at any time expressly or there will be several stops along the way? With each stop, the concept becomes less and less viable. One would think that stopping Palmdale (point of transfer is possible) and Victorville (the point where the San Bernardino County residents can embark to go to Las Vegas) will be a possibility.

becomes an end in Victorville? If some of the ideas that seem less viable Victorville, DesertXpress plans have reduced the cell and place less emphasis in this city?

What are the implications for long-term plan? Western High Speed ​​Rail Association is always designed to Las Vegas is a natural center for future high-speed lines in Salt Lake City, Denver and Phoenix. Is this the catalyst for the south of the rail network?

Speaking rebrand DesertXpress train XpressWest consistent with this possibility.

Many people have written off as DesertXpress bad idea.

new opportunities with the Metro may be the only game company has to save the game.

Las Vegas Stories of the Sun columnist

The latest survey reveals very little about Nevada - on the surface

The latest survey reveals very little about Nevada - on the surface

By Jon Ralston

(contact)

class=”bypubdate”> Friday, the first of June 2012 | 02:00

pair days before the 2010 elections, having predicted the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, leader will survive, I received an email from smart member of the Republican Party said he was “very brave” but probably wrong.

“We crush the independence of Harry,” I was the Republican Sharron Angle. “() In the latest (survey) are the best in our campaign.”

relate this story not just gently remind him that I was right – although it never ceases to be an expert in the chest, swelling – but to remind all the light of recent Nevada polls numbers that are often misunderstood and the least I can be wrong. In fact, surveys of more than five months before the election showed very little on the surface that you do not know, the proverbial shot in time, space chosen, the state of the game.

So when NBC / Marist poll released this week, said the presidential race and the U.S. Senate in Nevada are air-ups – 48-46 for Presi dent Barack Obama, 46 – 44, and Senator Dean Heller – my visceral response: No joke.

But addict survey, which delved into the crosstab, you can say something about the validity of the survey and the scheme set to help determine the outcome in November. As the holiday season increases with the surveys that will likely be published by independent sources such as NBC / Marist to establish the basis and works with independent sources not biased (usually fundraising), worth given that this survey remind you seek.

Back in 2010, many surveys incorrectly under the impression that the angle was likely to beat Reid. But there were problems with almost all these studies, wisely by exploring the interior. Reid pollster Mark Mellman I was having only consistently accurate numbers for a reason. His model of the response to review carefully about what was actually

NBC / Marist poll made some assumptions that could be instructive for November, but can also interfere with current results. Or … maybe not.

As research

certainly not influence the key factors that determine the outcome of top-of-ticket races – and perhaps others too. Three keys to watch:

• Regional Response: Nevada has three states: North, South and Rural. The higher the percentage of votes in Clark County, the better for Democrats, who have a great advantage for the record. NBC / Marist poll shows participation model of Clark County is up 72 percent of the vote in November. It has a high content of around 5 percentage points in the last two elections, fails the super-conservative rural Nevada almost the same amount. Washoe County, the counties of swing, was closer. But if this is what it seems that the turnout in November, which is unlikely, President Obama is likely to win the state, Representative Shelley Berkley and could be a U.S. Senator. Meanwhile, NBC / Marist poll showed Berkley Clark won six and lost by 12 points at Washoe – I’m willing to bet $ 10,000 for Mitt Romney, if these are the results of November, on the basis of that response will probably will lose a considerable margin. In addition, Obama has shown only Clark wins by 5 points – if this happens, lose situation

• Hispanic participation: NBC / Marist poll has Hispanics 19 percent of the electorate. that is something that never happened in the history of the state. It is the largest in the last two cycles, in which 15 percent of voters are Latino. If 19 percent is not happening – not impossible – I think it is hard to believe Heller or Mitt Romney would win. A warning: survey shows that Hispanic respondents, Obama won 61-33, and 57-39 in Berkeley-not nearly as large as the 2008 Obama or Reid in 2010. If these percentages are correct, both in Berkeley and Obama are in trouble.

Reply • Gender: Women represent 50 percent of NBC / Marist universe, which seems a bit low – usually around 52 percent. There is a gender gap – Obama takes the lead among women 54-40 and 50-40 of Berkley. So despised in this study.

Other factors – such as many elderly people fall, which is the basis of loyalty and enthusiasm as the partisan level . However, regional, gender and Hispanic participation will tell us more than we know, so these numbers are valid for tracking all surveys.

Another reason went back to that time was in 2010 that angered Republicans here in Washington Thursday to NBC / Marist results, because they thought that was distorting the Democrat. Maybe they are.

But I have a very bold prediction that only experts pensive, almost omniscient can do: You can not

.