The latest survey reveals very little about Nevada - on the surface

The latest survey reveals very little about Nevada - on the surface

By Jon Ralston

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class=”bypubdate”> Friday, the first of June 2012 | 02:00

pair days before the 2010 elections, having predicted the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, leader will survive, I received an email from smart member of the Republican Party said he was “very brave” but probably wrong.

“We crush the independence of Harry,” I was the Republican Sharron Angle. “() In the latest (survey) are the best in our campaign.”

relate this story not just gently remind him that I was right – although it never ceases to be an expert in the chest, swelling – but to remind all the light of recent Nevada polls numbers that are often misunderstood and the least I can be wrong. In fact, surveys of more than five months before the election showed very little on the surface that you do not know, the proverbial shot in time, space chosen, the state of the game.

So when NBC / Marist poll released this week, said the presidential race and the U.S. Senate in Nevada are air-ups – 48-46 for Presi dent Barack Obama, 46 – 44, and Senator Dean Heller – my visceral response: No joke.

But addict survey, which delved into the crosstab, you can say something about the validity of the survey and the scheme set to help determine the outcome in November. As the holiday season increases with the surveys that will likely be published by independent sources such as NBC / Marist to establish the basis and works with independent sources not biased (usually fundraising), worth given that this survey remind you seek.

Back in 2010, many surveys incorrectly under the impression that the angle was likely to beat Reid. But there were problems with almost all these studies, wisely by exploring the interior. Reid pollster Mark Mellman I was having only consistently accurate numbers for a reason. His model of the response to review carefully about what was actually

NBC / Marist poll made some assumptions that could be instructive for November, but can also interfere with current results. Or … maybe not.

As research

certainly not influence the key factors that determine the outcome of top-of-ticket races – and perhaps others too. Three keys to watch:

• Regional Response: Nevada has three states: North, South and Rural. The higher the percentage of votes in Clark County, the better for Democrats, who have a great advantage for the record. NBC / Marist poll shows participation model of Clark County is up 72 percent of the vote in November. It has a high content of around 5 percentage points in the last two elections, fails the super-conservative rural Nevada almost the same amount. Washoe County, the counties of swing, was closer. But if this is what it seems that the turnout in November, which is unlikely, President Obama is likely to win the state, Representative Shelley Berkley and could be a U.S. Senator. Meanwhile, NBC / Marist poll showed Berkley Clark won six and lost by 12 points at Washoe – I’m willing to bet $ 10,000 for Mitt Romney, if these are the results of November, on the basis of that response will probably will lose a considerable margin. In addition, Obama has shown only Clark wins by 5 points – if this happens, lose situation

• Hispanic participation: NBC / Marist poll has Hispanics 19 percent of the electorate. that is something that never happened in the history of the state. It is the largest in the last two cycles, in which 15 percent of voters are Latino. If 19 percent is not happening – not impossible – I think it is hard to believe Heller or Mitt Romney would win. A warning: survey shows that Hispanic respondents, Obama won 61-33, and 57-39 in Berkeley-not nearly as large as the 2008 Obama or Reid in 2010. If these percentages are correct, both in Berkeley and Obama are in trouble.

Reply • Gender: Women represent 50 percent of NBC / Marist universe, which seems a bit low – usually around 52 percent. There is a gender gap – Obama takes the lead among women 54-40 and 50-40 of Berkley. So despised in this study.

Other factors – such as many elderly people fall, which is the basis of loyalty and enthusiasm as the partisan level . However, regional, gender and Hispanic participation will tell us more than we know, so these numbers are valid for tracking all surveys.

Another reason went back to that time was in 2010 that angered Republicans here in Washington Thursday to NBC / Marist results, because they thought that was distorting the Democrat. Maybe they are.

But I have a very bold prediction that only experts pensive, almost omniscient can do: You can not

.